PAKISTAN READER

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Fafen calls on the ECP to conduct audit of election results

In Brief
PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2024
PR Exclusive Update #70
Fafen calls on the ECP to conduct audit of election results
On 18 February, the Free and Fair Election Network (Fafen) called on the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to use data analytics and forensics to “establish the legitimacy” of the election results, which have been challenged by political parties. To enhance the transparency of this process, Fafen recommended that the audit comprise of representatives chosen by the parties and independent observers. It also called on the ECP to clarify the legitimacy of multiple versions of Form-45 that were generated. As per Fafen, the audit method would have three steps. The first would be assessing the availability and accuracy of the election documentation and result forms. The second would be correcting any potential consequences that arose due to data from unverified forms. The last stage would involve holding election officials accountable. Fafen added that the post-election situation “warrants an urgent and prompt response by the Election Commission to ascertain the veracity of the claims of illegalities and irregularities by political parties and candidates.” Since 2013, the network had urged the ECP to scrutinize results of all constituencies before declaring the winners in order to maintain the integrity of the elections. Additionally, Fafen pointed out that there were seven copies of Form-45, and cited the Elections Act 2017, which “does not establish which copy will be considered legal in case the available and produced copies are different and duly signed and there is a dispute.” (“FAFEN asks ECP to audit election results,” The Express Tribune, 19 February 2024)

PTI seeks an ‘independent and empowered’ judicial commission to inquire into allegations
On 18 February, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) sought an “independent and empowered” judicial commission to inquire into the allegations made by the former Rawalpindi commissioner Liaquat Ali Chattha. Meanwhile, on the same day, the Punjab government decided to register a case against Chattha as he leveled the “bombshell allegations” regarding the election rigging. Speaking at a press conference, PTI leader Gohar Ali Khan said: “This is the first time a commissioner is raising his voice according to his conscience. He said that he made sure candidates who lost were made to win while those who won were made to lose. This corroborates what we have been saying.” He added: “That is why the PTI demands that a judicial commission is formed and an inquiry is conducted. And not just an inquiry, but those involved should be made to join the inquiry.” On 17 February, in an informal chat with the reporters, Chattha had disclosed the “irregularities” in the recently concluded elections and accused the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), CEC Sikandar Sultan Raja and Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa for being involved in a ‘rigging plan’. He further said that candidates who were “losing” the polls “were made to win”. However, the both CJP and ECP rejected the claims and asserted that the Supreme Court dealt with the election-related pleas. On the other hand, PML-N leader Malik Ahmed Khan categorized Chattha’s statement as “May 9 part-II’ that is aimed at engendering unrest in the country along with PTI spreading hatred against bureaucracy.  (“PTI calls for judicial commission to probe ex-Rawalpindi commissioner’s rigging revelations,” Dawn, 18 February 2024, Aamir Yasin, “Govt, ECP swing into action against former Pindi commissioner,” Dawn, 19 February 2024)
 
Maryam Nawaz vows to use “iron hands” to deal with those threatening the bureaucracy
On 18 February, the PML-N’s senior vice president, Maryam Nawaz, warned of legal action against those inciting the “bureaucracy to break the law,” referring indirectly to the PTI. She stated on X that those threatening the bureaucracy and trying to create chaos in Pakistan would be dealt with “iron hands,” while telling officers to not be “intimidated by threats.” Earlier, PML-N leader Malik Ahmad Khan had accused the PTI of inciting hate against government officers, after Rawalpindi Commissioner Liaquat Ali Chattha resigned. While Chattha claimed that the ECP and the Chief Justice of Pakistan were involved in election “rigging,” Ahmad claimed that Chattha was not even a part of the poll process and had no post in the ECP, proving “hate is being incited in a way that is a threat to their lives.” (“Maryam vows to protect bureaucrats,” The Express Tribune, 19 February 2024)
 
PPP chairman Bilawal refuses “power-sharing formula” with PML-N
On 18 February, while addressing a Yaum-i-Tashakur (Thanksgiving Day) rally in Thatta to celebrate the Pakistan People’s Party (PPPP) election victory in Sindh, the party chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari stated that he had rejected “power-sharing formula” offer with Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) PML-N. He asserted that former president Asif Ali Zardari would be the presidential candidate. He said: “I was told by PML-N that let us be the prime minister for three years and then you can take the premiership for the remaining two years.” “I said no to this. I said I do not want to be a prime minister like this,” he added. “If I become the prime minister, it would be after the people of Pakistan elect me.” He further asserted that the PPP had decided to hear all the election complaints of party workers country wide and would acknowledge them in appropriate places. He further added that all the political parties should work for the growth of the country and stay within the system. In his social media post, Bilawal said: “We believe the way forward is for all political parties to put aside their personal interests for the interests of the people of Pakistan. Our history has shown who benefits from chaos and division, and the people of Sindh remember the destruction wrought by those who encouraged and brought about the worst dictatorship our country has ever seen. We must not let such a situation arise again.” (Ghulam Hussain Khawaja, “Bilawal rejects power-sharing formula,” Dawn, 19 February 2024)
 
PTI to form an alliance with SIC
On 18 February, with the help of Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC), Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) renewed its efforts to form government at the centre, in Punjab and in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This was followed by a country-wide protest against election rigging. During a press conference, the PTI leaders pledged to form a government with Omar Ayub as its prime ministerial candidate. They even stated that PTI-backed candidates had won 30 million votes without its electoral symbol of ‘bat’. PTI chairman Gohar Khan claimed that “PTI won 180 seats in the National Assembly, 115 seats in Punjab, 16 in Sindh, 42 in KP, and four in Balochistan”. “In Balochistan, we got one seat, three are due. In Sindh, we did not get even a single seat. In Punjab, we are due about 50 seats,” he added. Separately, SIC leader Hafiz Hamid Raza and Majlis Wahdat-i-Muslimeen (MWM) leaders met in the MWM secretariat to hold talks regarding the coalition. However, there was no official statement after the meeting.  The meeting highlighted that PTI independents for the National Assembly as well as Punjab Assembly were asked to prepare stamp papers by expressing their willingness to join SIC. Meanwhile, there have been speculations of MWM breakup with PTI, however, PTI spokesperson Raoof Hassan asserted that MWM and the PTI were old allies as well as partners in Gilgit-Baltistan and this alliance will persist. (Ikram Junaidi, “PTI strikes alliance with Sunni Ittehad Council, vows to form govt,” Dawn, 19 February 2024)
 
Keeping the security establishment out important for a stronger federation, assert panelists at KLF
On 17 February, on the sidelines of the Karachi Literature Festival (KLF), panelists in one of the sessions asserted that it is “imperative” to keep the security forces out of politics to make the government stronger. Speaking on the occasion, Asad Umar commented on the importance of strengthening local governments and said: “In the narrative of federal evolution, we need to empower local governments this will have a significant impact on the overall governance and contribute to sustainable progress.” According to Shabbar Zaidi, the federation will not grow strong unless the military’s influence in national politics is reduced. And only by rewiring its budget could that be accomplished efficiently, he continued. He said that the 18th Amendment and the National Finance Commission (NFC) award had placed restrictions on the military’s spending and budget. He claimed that although the Federation was strong in written documents and books, its implementation was weak. In order to save Pakistan, he continued, all political parties must come together. (Waqas Ali, “Call to keep establishment out of politics to strengthen federation: panelists,”Dawn, 18 February 2024)
 
PPP to form government in Balochistan, says PPP leader Bugti
On 18 February, with the PML-N promising the party its complete support, the PPP asserted that it was in a position to form a government in Balochistan. In a press conference, PPP leader Sarfaraz Bugti said: “Some nationalist parties were raising hue and cry over their defeat in the polls, but despite all odds, the PPP will form government in Balochistan.” Based on the results that have been released thus far, the PML-N and JUI-F have secured 11 seats in the provincial assembly. The PPP has secured 10 seats, the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) has secured 4 seats, and independents have won 6 seats. According to Bugti, the PPP will shortly complete government formation procedures in Balochistan. But he added that the PPP had not yet selected a candidate to serve as chief minister. He stated that although there were concerns, the PPP had accepted the election results “in the largest interest of the country” and that several PPP candidates had also suffered “unexpected defeat” in various areas. Another PPP leader, Sardar Sarbuland Khan, stated that the party would shortly form their government in Balochistan because the people of the province had given the party the go-ahead. He asserted that it was his fault that BNP-M President Akhtar Mengal lost the election. He said: “Mengal did massive corruption during his rule in Balochistan. Both Akhtar Mengal and Dr Abdul Malik Baloch should first see their own deeds and then criticize others.” (Syed Irfan Raza, “PPP set to form govt in Balochistan, says Sarfaraz Bugti,” Dawn, 19 February 2024)
 
PML-N leader accuses PTI of planning to “create chaos,” warns of “repetition” of 9 May riots
On 18 February, PML-N leader Malik Ahmad Khan expressed fear for a repeat of incidents similar to those that happened on 9 May, following Rawalpindi commissioner Liaquat Ali Chatha’s confession to rigging the elections. Following Chatha’s statement and resignation, the PTI and other parties staged protests nationally, alleging that the PML-N had stolen its mandate. Ahmad Khan said that the PTI “should be stopped or they will cause great damage” to Pakistan, and accused it of continuing “the same conspiracy” without learning anything from the 9 May incident. He alleged that the PTI’s “scary” campaign, in which they were “threatening government employees” and using photos of district returning officers (DRO) to fuel hatred was a “plan to create chaos in the country.” Further, Ahmad Khan claimed that Chatha “spoke without evidence” as he was neither a DRO nor did he hold any position in the ECP. (“'This is May 9 part two', says PML-N leader on Rawalpindi commissioner's allegations,” The News International, 18 February 2024)
 
 ANP is one of the “major casualties” in the recently concluded elections, argues an opinion in The News International
On 19 February,  in an editorial in The News International titled “Why did ANP lose popularity?,” Zubair Torwali described the center-left nationalist party the Awami National Party (ANP) as one of the “major casualties” that won one seat in its stronghold KP and two provincial seats in Balochistan. Although there was minimal expectation for the ANP to be a “major victor” in KP, the “high margin” with which the party lost was shocking. This is because until 2023, people expected the ANP to be a victor in KP along with the JUI-F. However, the “unexpected performance” by PTI-backed candidates in KP led to the “humiliating ouster” of the ANP from the KP assembly, and Torwali attributed this loss to “leadership, outdated narratives, and flaws in political maneuvering or strategies.” When the Asfandyar Wali Khan-led ANP won in KP last time, the party “performed considerably well” in areas such as counter-terrorism. The then chief minister Amir Haider Khan Hoti also was responsible for improving the education sector. However, when the son of Asfandiyar Wali Khan was “‘elected’” instead of Amir Haider Hoti, going against the wish of the supporters, many were left “disappointed” as they considered his son to be an “unserious persona.” Another reason for the ANP’s loss, as pointed out by Torwali, was that the “Pashtun-centric narrative no longer worked” since it had been taken over by the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM). The ANP had focused on provincial autonomy, stopped the construction of the Kalabagh dam, and given KP a Pashtun identity; however, with the 18^th Amendment solving the issue of a Pashtun political identity and the dam construction becoming a “forgotten story,” the ANP’s narrative may have become outdated. Torwali also highlighted siding with the contenders for the no-confidence vote against Imran Khan was “disastrous” for the ANP, because it supported the PTI’s ouster and “took no ministry.” It also could not display itself as “anti-establishment,” and was thus thought of as “siding with those who are powerful.” The party also failed to “win the sympathies of other nationalities.” Furthermore, it has a lot of feudal lords in its ranks that cannot perform anymore because of the growth of the middle class in KP. Torwali also contended that KP’s voters are “more emotional” and “buy the victim card willingly;” in 2024, Imran Khan was seen as a “greater victim.”  (Zubair Torwali, “Why did ANP lose popularity?” The News International, 19 February 2024)
 
POLITICS
It is now up to the incoming government to mount a robust resistance against non-democratic forces, argues an editorial in Dawn
On 19 February, an editorial in Dawn titled “Democracy’s decline” highlighted the decline in democracy around the world, citing a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). With 2023 marked by “wars, authoritarian crackdowns, and a decrease in trust in mainstream political entities,” Pakistan emerged as a “prominent casualty” and its rank downgraded by 11 points. The editorial described its reclassification as an ‘authoritarian regime’ as “alarming” and a “cause for shame and introspection.” It also stood third among the “worst performing countries” after Niger and Gabon. The EIU linked this performance to the fact that the 2024 elections were “marred” with allegations of rigging, result manipulation, and military interference. The editorial also cited a statement by the Commonwealth Observer Group, who pointed out “deadly attacks” and lack of inclusivity” before and during the elections. However, the Foreign Officer’s dismissal of this criticism as “neither constructive nor objective,” and insistence on elections being an “internal sovereign affair” has not helped matters. As per the editorial, democracy requires “transparency, fairness, and the ability for power to change hands through the will of the people.” Thus, the incoming government must resist “non-democratic forces” by implementing reforms aimed at “poll integrity, safeguarding civil liberties, and dismantling the influence of the establishment in political affairs.” The editorial concludes by asserting that Pakistan can emerge as a country “committed to democratic governance” only by taking these ‘earnest efforts.” (“Democracy’s decline,” Dawn, 19 February 2024)
 
ECONOMY
Debt dilemma- Pakistan’s growing burden
On 18 February, a report titled “A Raging Fire” by think-tank Tabadlab highlighted Pakistan’s “formidable, existential and pertinent” debt crisis, which needs “immediate and strategic interventions.” Since 2011, external debt doubled and domestic debt increased six-fold. In FY24, Pakistan faces a USD 49.5 billion debt repayment, mainly due to a consumption-focused economy without investment in productive sectors. Shortening boom and bust cycles, sustained current account deficits, and fiscal deficits exacerbate the situation. Pakistan's debt growth is growing faster than its GDP, indicating an unsustainable path toward default without sweeping reforms. Climate vulnerabilities further strain the debt profile, necessitating transformative changes to avoid an inevitable spiral of default. (“ ‘Pakistan’s total public debt becoming unsustainable’,” The News International, 19 February 2024)
 
Pakistan moves forward with gas line project with Iran, plans phased approach
On 19 February, The News International reported that Pakistan decided to proceed with the long-delayed gas line project in its territory, opting for a phased approach. The plan involves laying the initial 81-kilometer segment of the pipeline from Gwadar, connecting it to Iran’s portion of the pipeline from the gas field. The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) has approved this strategy, with the Petroleum Division set to seek administrative approval from the federal cabinet. Funding will be arranged through the Gas Infrastructure Development Cess (GIDC) board. Initially, the gas will be used in Gwadar, with plans to later extend the pipeline to Nawabshah. Iran has granted a deadline extension until September 2024, after which it may seek arbitration for a penalty of USD 18 billion. However, Iran has also offered technical and legal expertise to work out a solution jointly. Coordination committees from both countries will collaborate to advance the project, following the normalization of tensions between Pakistan and Iran. (Khalid Mustafa, “IP gas pipeline project: Pakistan to lay 81-km pipeline from Gwadar to Iranian border,” The News International, 19 February 2024)
 
EXTERNAL
Pakistan supports UN envoy for Afghanistan amid Taliban dispute
On 18 February, the UN-sponsored conference began in Doha, wherein Pakistan endorsed the appointment of a UN special envoy on Afghanistan. Special envoys from over 20 countries were in attendance, along with human rights activists and representatives opposed to the Taliban regime; the Taliban declined the invitation. The conference was aimed at discussing the independent assessment of the UN special coordinator on Afghanistan, with a key aim being appointing a UN special envoy to spearhead international efforts on Afghanistan. Pakistan was initially opposed to the envoy, but has now changed its stance but cautioned that the envoy must be “Muslim, experienced diplomat, and from the region.” The Taliban government, on the other hand, has claimed that there is no requirement for an appointment of an envoy, since the country is not in a state of conflict and is functioning normally. Pakistan’s change in stance could be potentially linked to the strain in ties between both countries over the banned TTP. (Kamran Yousaf, “Pakistan to back UN special envoy on Afghanistan as Doha conference begins,” The Express Tribune, 18 February 2024)
 
Pakistani senator discusses BRICS, Pakistan-Russia relations
On 18 February, The Express Tribune reported that Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed expressed hope for Pakistan’s inclusion in BRICS with Russian cooperation during his visit to Russia. He discussed bilateral relations with Russian officials, including former Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, and highlighted shared interests in energy and regional stability. On the situation in Afghanistan and the war in Gaza, he stated: “Pakistan core interests are linked to this region, where Russia is a key factor.” Sayed also addressed the Russian Diplomatic Academy, emphasising Pakistan-Russia ties and the role of Muslim middle powers. He noted growing goodwill towards Pakistan in Moscow and emphasised Pakistan's neutrality on Ukraine. Additionally, Sayed was elected to the International Forum for Freedom of Nations' standing committee and invited to observe the 2024 Russian presidential elections. He underscored the need for a regional foreign policy reset and highlighted China's role in Pakistan-Russia connectivity. Following discussions, Sayed highlighted “tremendous goodwill” that he received for Pakistan in official circles in Moscow, noting that there was “no fundamental conflict of interest” between the two countries. (“Pakistan ‘optimistic about joining BRICS’ this year,” The Express Tribune, 18 February 2024)
 
SECURITY
Nine militants killed security operations in KP
On 17 February, two different intelligence-based operations by security forces in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) resulted in one sepoy and nine militants being killed. As per the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), one operation was in the Tank district and the other in South Waziristan. Weapons, ammunition, and explosives were recovered. The ISPR affirmed: “Security forces of Pakistan are determined to wipe out the menace of terrorism from the country and such sacrifices of our brave soldiers further strengthen our resolve.” (“Sepoy martyred, nine militants killed in KP operations,” Dawn, 18 February 2024) 

World Democracy Index: What is more regrettable is Pakistan’s ranking among the worst performing countries, where it stands third after Niger and Gabon. The Index points out the establishment’s outsized political influence as a critical factor. -Hamid Mir   Dear ECP, why are ballot papers for Nawaz Sharif's and Maryam Nawaz's constituency still being printed after the elections have concluded? What is the reason for this? -Anwar Lodhi   There are good number of X users in Pakistan but our authorities has blocked this app in Pakistan to suppress people’s voices against rigging and fascism. X authorities should write to Pakistani authorities to immediately lift this ban as it is a restriction on free speech. -Falak Javaid Khan

“Can democracy be a panacea to the economic insolvency and human deprivation?” -An opinion in The Express Tribune, ‘Discipline or anarchy?’